“Iranians no longer put up with everything, and many are willing to take a high risk for it,” I explained to the RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND) on Friday. After the killing of General Soleimani by the USA initially silenced domestic protests, the tragic shooting down of the plane brought government critics back onto the streets. After the chaotic back and forth, the RND asked me for an assessment of how the situation in Iran is now developing.
I think a military coup by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is unlikely at the moment, as they are under heavy pressure from the shooting down of the Ukrainian passenger plane. A direct military confrontation between Iran and the USA is also not to be expected. However, the proxy wars in Iraq, Yemen and Syria may escalate. “Many Iraqis, for example, fear that Iranian influence on their country will increase if the Americans leave Iraq. They fear even worse reprisals by militias supported by Iran,” I said in the interview. The EU must act as a mediator and not be perceived as an appendage to the US. The “geopolitical commission” prompted by Ursula von der Leyen must have both feet firmly on international law and make serious offers of talks.
“What matters now is that the EU exerts sufficient diplomatic pressure on the US and Iran and how the leadership in Tehran reacts. The regime is coming under increasing pressure. That’s why the government in Tehran is well advised to engage in negotiations – even if only for the sake of securing its own survival.
– Hannah Neumann, MdEP
